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**Objective:**

Child will develop an understanding that a probability of an event occurring will always be a fraction or a percentage between 0 and 1 through experimentation and reasoning.

**Essential Question:**

What is the probability of an event occurring?

**Special Materials:**

Brown lunch bags

Bricks Required:

Brick plates, 1x to make the borders, any size bricks to keep a tally,

and a separate quantity of bricks to put in the brown bag

Project Structure

Engage/Explain:

- Select two different colors of bricks.
- Ask child, “If I place these two bricks in a paper bag and ask you to select a brick, what is the likelihood that you will select ______-colored brick?”
- Give child a chance to think about the question and give a response.
- Encourage child to not only give the answer, but provide supporting reasoning for their answer.

- Tell child that you will now put one brick of a 3rd color into the bag.
- Repeat the question above;
- Allow them time to respond with reasoning.

- Child should write the probability in terms of a fraction: ½ and ⅓.
- Child may use a number line (0-1) to help identify fractions and their magnitude.
- Repeat the process if desired by adding a 4th and then 5th color.

**Explore:**

- Ask child what happens to the probability of selecting a specific color as additional colors are added.
- Are the chances of selecting that color getting larger or smaller?
- Will the chances of selecting a certain color ever be certain?

- Have child brainstorm around these questions and share their conclusions and reasoning.

**Explain/Elaborate**

- Tell child that in each case above, their odds of selecting a brick were decreasing, and at most they had a 50-50 chance of selecting a specific brick color.
- Task child with finding a way to increase their odds of selecting a specific color from the bag.
- Allow child time and additional bricks to develop a model of ways they may increase their odds of selecting a specific brick color.
- Have child provide reasoning and examples of their model, to show that it provides an increase in the probability of a certain color being selected.

- Child’s responses should include adding more of the same brick color to generate higher probabilities for those colors.
- Child may run into difficulty in developing fractions, as the numerators and denominators change. Facilitate sound reasoning on a case-by-case basis.