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The Missing Link



From: Colleen Keirn (ckeirn@cfa.harvard.edu)
Date: Tue Jun 18 2002 - 16:08:45 EDT

  • Next message: David Gray: "Re: [Teacher-Talkmissinglink] oak trees and such"

    >At 3:04 PM -0600 6/11/02, Gale Greenlee wrote:
    >> Hello: I wanted to discuss the various methods used to solve
    >>the following puzzle. So to start the discussion I will present
    >>the puzzle and then discuss the solution with anyone who is
    >>interested. Here goes.
    >>"Salesmen lie 4/7 of the time. We pick a tree in the forest, at
    >>random, and ask the salesmen (three of them) to tell us what kind
    >>of a tree it is. All three agree that it is an oak. The
    >>probability the tree is an oak is 9/73. What portion of the trees
    >>are oaks?"

    Ok, I am going to take a stab at this. I have no basis, other than a
    hunch, to base it on. I have no idea if I am right, by the way, just
    coming at this on a Tuesday afternoon.

    My process/guess:

    The first bits of information are extraneous. The key information is
    "The probability the tree is an oak is 9/73." That means for every
    73 trees, 9 are oaks. So my guess is 9/73rds of the trees are oaks.

    Just a thought. I'm really interested in this question now!



    Colleen Keirn Workshop Coordinator

    The Annenberg Channel c/o Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics 60 Garden Street - MS 82 Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

    Phone: 617-496-7686 / 800-228-8030 x1 Fax: 617-496-7670 Email: ckeirn@cfa.harvard.edu / channel@learner.org URL: http://www.learner.org

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