Predicting When the First Spring Generation Will Emerge

If you assume that:

  • Eggs were laid at all the places where monarchs were sighted, and
  • It takes 32 days for a monarch to develop from an egg into an adult.

The "Migration" Map Becomes....

A New Map!
"Next Generation" Map

On the right is the new map! It shows when and where we can expect the next generation of monarchs to emerge. Note how the dates of the legends changed:

Monarchs Sighted
(Legend of "Migration" Map)

The Next Generation
Should Emerge
(Legend of "Next Generation" Map)

Before March 15

Before Apr. 16

Mar 15 - Mar 28

Apr. 16 - Apr. 29

Mar 29 - Apr 11

Apr 30 - May 13

Apr 12 - Apr 25

May 14 - May 27

Apr 26 - May 9

May 28 - Jun 10

Example: When might we expect monarchs to emerge in Arkansas? In North Carolina?

Answer: Using the map and legend above, we can predict that the first monarchs will emerge in Arkansas between Apr 30 - May 13, and in North Carolina between May 14 - May 27. Let's see if monarch sightings increase noticeably in those areas at that time!