Good News Predicted
This year's population will be measured in December, when the monarchs are densely concentrated in their clusters. Results may be released as early as this month. Monarch numbers are expected to have increased substantially from the record lows of the past 3 years.
How Much Larger?
Predictions of a 4-fold increase over last year have been reported in the Mexican press, but estimates made before the monarchs cluster tightly are likely to be inflated.
We predict the population will be twice as large as last year based on Journey North's fall migration data. Based on tagging data, Dr. Chip Taylor of Monarch Watch also predicts the population will have at least doubled. He noted that, since conditions this breeding season were similar to those of 2011, he wouldn't be surprised to see the population reach the level of 2011 (2.89 hectares).
We'll post the news as soon as it's available!