FINAL Gray Whale Migration Update: May 18, 2005

Today's Report Includes:

• Track the Whales: Latest Migration Data
• Analyze the Data
• Still Coming: Moms and Babies: Latest Migration Data at Pt. Piedras Blancas, CA
• Final Field Notes from Channel Islands, CA
• Final Field Notes from Los Angeles, CA
• Want to Dive Into Whale Research?
• Back to Baja: Thanks, Keith!
• Counting Whales: Discussion of Challenge Question #9
• Year-End Evaluation: Please Share Your Thoughts

Photo Keith Jones

Los Angeles Data	Gray Whale Migration Off the California Coast	Channel Islands Data
	Whales passing per day Feb 1 - May 15, 2005
Northbound Los Angeles		Northbound Channel Islands
Northbound and Southbound Los Angeles
Data Courtesy of the American Cetacean Society of Los Angeles and Channel Islands

• How is the migration at the two sites similar? How is it different?
• What might explain these differences? Look back through your notes, and through the Spring 2005 season updates, and list as many reasons as you can find.

We were watching for key migration events and identifiable pulses this spring. When did each of the following occur? If the dates were different at the two sites, explain why you think the differences occurred:

• the turnaround date, when northbound whales outnumbered southbound whales (LA post only);
• end of the southbound migration (LA post only);
• sighting of the first northbound calf (with its mom);
• peak migration date(s) for the northbound pulses;
• peak migration dates for the cow/calf pairs.

In addition to migration events at the two California posts, when were the first whales sighted in the Gulf of Alaska at Kodiak? Do you think it’s safe to say whether the northbound migration is over? Why?

Now let's hear what our observers tell us for this final report of the spring migration!

"We use the trailer as a wind break and storage area. We stand watch from 7 am to 7 pm, with each person on watch for 3 hours and then off for 3 hours," explains Wayne.	Aerial view of Pt. Piedras Blancas, CA, where gray whale mothers and babies are counted as they pass.	"The observers use a combination of 25X binoculars, hand held binoculars, and naked eye to sight whales. There are two people on watch at a time and we have two teams (4 observers total)."

"Two weeks ago, volunteers were still seeing 15 to 20 calves per day. This week, counts are down to 2 or 3 calves/day, so “the party is almost over,” reports Wayne. “We will continue to maintain watches until we get a good series of zero count days in a row. We expect to close up by about 27 May. We have recorded 336 cow/calf pairs so far this year. With some luck, I think that we might make it to 350 pairs. It’s not the spectacular year of 456 calves we had in 1994, but this is the 5th highest calf count since we began doing this work in 1994."

Many thanks, Wayne Perryman, for sharing the good with us from your observation post on the migration trail!

What do the numbers mean? Of course, they aren’t seeing EVERY new calf born this year. We were curious so we asked Wayne. His reply: “This census will probably produce an estimate of about 1000 new calves entering the population this year, enough for some population growth. For gray whales, the migratory corridor southbound takes the entire population within 2 miles of a point of land just south of Carmel, California. From this site, scientists have been counting southbound gray whales since 1968 (not every year) and estimating the size of this population. So from this series of counts, we know that the population has been growing at a rate of about 3 percent per year for several years, and that the population is somewhere around 20,000 whales. So, if we add 1000 calves to a population of 20,000, you would get about 5% population growth. That doesn't account for natural mortality (maybe 3%), so we are still making enough calves for some population growth.”

Hooray! That’s very good news, especially after the poor numbers of years 2000 and 2001, which you can read about in our archives.

Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary near Santa Barbara, CA

This (2005) was the first year a census of migrating gray whales was conducted at the Channel Islands location. Journey North THANKS Research Director Michael H. Smith and the many dedicated ACS-CI volunteers who showed up for 100 straight days to count the gray whales heading north from Mexico to Alaska. Your comments made us feel as though we were at the lookout with you!

Can you spot 2 whales? (Click to enlarge)

Gray whale and pelicans. Photos Tom Kotzebu

Final Field Notes from Los Angeles Observation Post
May 15: “Fog was back today, but not as bad as yesterday. We had lots of common dolphin, and bottlenose too. Diving pelicans and frolicking sea lions seemed determined to manufacture the blows and prints of invisible whales. This was a VERY good year for the gray whales...although the weather made it tough for whale watchers. Lots of calves from last season made it back as (sometimes squirrelly) juveniles.” That sums up the final day of the ACS/LA census in the words of Research Director Alisa Schulman-Janiger.

This (2005) was the 22nd season in a row for this census! Journey North THANKS Alisa and the many trained volunteers who showed up every day from December 1 through May 15 during daylight hours, seven days a week, to count the migrating gray whales. We are grateful to them all for helping Journey North students share a glimpse of the great gray whales on their migration trail!

On another subject, Coastal Ecosystems Research Foundation made a special Whale Photo ID Quiz for you Journey North whale trackers. It all started when Dr. William Megill and colleagues wondered if seasonal resident whales migrate to Mexico with the other gray whales. To find out, they took hundreds of photos of gray whales that hang out each summer along the coast of British Columbia (BC) and Washington State. Then they took hundreds of photos of whales in the lagoons of Baja Mexico. By matching photos of whales in BC with whales that migrated to the lagoons in Baja, they discovered many of the same whales in both places! This was the first photographic proof that the summertime resident whales from British Columbia migrated south with gray whales coming from the Arctic. In the Photo ID lesson he created especially for Journey North, Dr. Megill shows us just what scientists look for in matching whale photos until they're sure of having a positive identification.

Take the photo ID challenge right here! Who knows? Together we may be tracking some of these whales on their next journey north!

• Who is That Whale? Whale Photo ID Matching

Keith takes photos!

On days like this, only gray whales traveling very near-shore might be sighted and tallied for the ACS-CI census. Photo M.H. Smith

May 5: “Rain + fog: observation washed out.”
May 6: “Very windy, but we managed a good sighting before we were blown off the Point.”
May 7: “Beautiful! Great visibility, but no whales.”

Perhaps the whales passed at night or when observers were not on site. Maybe the observers were just learning what to watch for and missed some whales. The migration could be early or late because of feeding or ice conditions in Alaska. How many other variables did you name? Each year you follow the whales, you will be abe to add more variables to your list!

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