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The NCTM (2000) data analysis and probability standards state that students should "develop and evaluate inferences and predictions that are based on data." Appropriate beginnings for the concepts of inference and prediction in pre-K to grade 2 classrooms occur in conversations with children as they consider what the data are telling us, what might account for these results, and whether we'd get the same results in other similar situations. Inference and prediction are more advanced aspects of working with data, as they require some notion of the ideas of sampling and population.
Children's first experience is often with census data -- that is, the population of their class. When they begin to wonder what might be true for other classes in their own school and other schools, they begin to consider that many data sets are samples of larger populations. These considerations are the precursors to understanding the notion of inferences from samples. Children should be encouraged to develop conjectures based on data, consider alternative explanations, and design further investigations to examine their speculations. Note 5
When viewing the video segment, keep the following questions in mind:
• | How does Ms. Sabanosh encourage students to make inferences and predictions? |
• | An expectation for students at this level is that they will "discuss events related to [their] experiences as likely or unlikely" (NCTM, 2000). How is this expectation illustrated in this video segment? |
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