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• The Virgin Field
• - Step 1
• - Step 2
• - For Your Consideration
• Vaccination
• - Step 1
• - Step 2
• - For Your Consideration
• Counter-Virus
• - Step 1
• - Step 2
• - For Your Consideration
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Lessons > The Virgin Field > Step 1

Most diseases begin with what is called "the virgin field"—a scenario in which humans have no natural or man-made immunity to the disease. To see the progress of a disease in a particular community, start by predicting how many sick days will be reported when you run the Kold disease through a medium-sized population, and record your prediction in the data table. In this first run-through, we'll assume that the population does not move around the field; they interact with their neighbors, but do not travel long distances. Make sure the tableau is set to virgin and run the simulator to 100 days (click on Run button) three times and answer the following:

1. Do you get the exact same results each time? How do the results compare to each other and to your prediction? What factors might contribute to susceptibility to the disease?
2. If the contagion rate is calculated as the number of new cases per day per total population, what would the average contagion rate be for Kold?