Support Materials --

Math for All

Taking a Chance

During this 30-minute math program you will:

explore with your children the idea of "chance" (probability).

provide opportunities for your children to make some predictions based on doing activities.

Activity #1

What's In the Bag?
In this activity children will experience that some outcomes are more predictable than others. Remember to ask your children three questions in this activity -

What is certain? Why?
What is possible? Why?
What is impossible? Why?

Empty a small bag of M&M's into a lunch bag, but do NOT show the contents to the children. Have your children guess what's in the bag. Then have your children remove 1 item from the bag, look at it and return it to the bag. Have them do this 20 times. Now ask your children to think about what is in the bag. Ask question #1, then #2, and then #3. Have your children "justify" their answers.
Materials:

small bag of M&M's
paper lunch bag
Additional Activities:
Put 5 yellow and 10 brown M&M's in a lunch bag. Let the children see you do this. Then ask them to predict which color they will pull out most often. Have them remove one item from the bag, look at it and return it. Have them do this 15 times, keeping a record of the results. Ask the same questions as in the previous activity.

Trials 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Yellow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Brown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Activity #2

Heads or Tails?
In this activity your children will explore probability by predicting the outcome of a game. After playing the game at least ten times, children should realize that both players have an equal chance at winning.
Make a "bank" by placing 10 pennies in a small container. Put one penny in the larger container with a cover. Have the players predict who will win the most games.

Each player chooses a side of the coin - heads or tails. Shake coin in the container and toss on the table. The player whose side turns up goes first, i.e., if heads appears, the player who chose heads goes first.
First player shakes container and tosses coin onto the table; if heads appears, the player who chose heads gets to take a penny from the bank. If tails appears, the player who chose tails gets to take a penny.
Players continue taking turns until the bank is used up.
Players record the number of pennies they each have.
Play this gave 10 times to see who is the winner.
Materials:

11 pennies
1 small container
1 container with a cover

Activity #3

" Prizey" Rolls
In this activity your children will again be introduced to probability. This time they will discover that it is more difficult to predict outcomes if there are many possibilities from which to choose.
The Challenge: Your favorite cereal comes with six different prizes, but each box contains only one prize. The prizes are not described on the outside of the box, so how many boxes of cereal would you have to buy to get all six prizes? Write down your prediction.

Roll the die - random number generator - and mark the graph under the corresponding number/prize. (Each number on the die represents a prize.)
Continue rolling the die until you have marked an X under each prize.
Count all of the X's to see how many boxes of cereal you must buy to get all the prizes. How close were you to your prediction? Do this several times and compare the results.
Materials

1 random number generator (die)
graph
pencil
Additional Activities:
Find out how much a prize is worth and compare that to the price of the cereal. Use your calculator to see how many prizes you could buy for the cost of a box of cereal.

Try this at home:
Put ten thumb tacks in a cup. Write down how many tacks you tink will land point up and how many will land point down. Next shake the cup and spill the tacks out on a hard surface. Try this 10 times and record your results each time.

What happened? Why do you think they landed the way they did?

Did your guess match your experiment?

Trials	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Yellow	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.
Brown	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.	.